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Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, by Cynthia M. Grabo
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This book and its message could not be more relevant today. After World War II, the U.S. Intelligence Community’s main objective was to understand the intentions and capabilities of the Communist threat. This meant a focus on the Soviet Union and its allies. Data on the number and capabilities of tanks, airplanes or ships in the inventory of the Warsaw Pact were not easy to come by, although somewhat easier to obtain than insight into the intentions of Communist leaders. A well-placed spy or satellite with a camera could yield some information but far from the whole picture. One of the most knowledgeable analysts who understood the importance of addressing both capabilities and intentions as a central part of the intelligence process was a woman—Cynthia Grabo. Intelligence analysis was dominated by men before, during, and after World War II. In this environment, Ms. Grabo stood out. Cynthia Grabo worked as an intelligence analyst for the U.S. government from 1942 to 1980. After graduating from the University of Chicago with undergraduate and graduate degrees, she was recruited by Army Intelligence shortly after Pearl Harbor. Although she served in various capacities during the war, from 1949 for the remainder of her career she specialized in strategic warning. Assigned to the interagency staff called the National Indications Center, she served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and for its successor organization the Strategic Warning Staff. It was during this time that Ms. Grabo recognized the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. The viability of the U.S. intelligence system depends on analysts, collectors, humanists and technologists, all of whom must be willing in their assessments and creative work to share risks with appropriate intelligence consumers. Commanders and policymakers also promote the viability of the intelligence system if they allow analysts to fail, yet to continue their work. As Ms Grabo points out, the Intelligence Community must avoid treating the warning function as only a by-product of other intelligence production. To “work’’ a warning problem is to anticipate events in their fullest political, military, economic, diplomatic and cultural context. If the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon came as a surprise because “nothing like that had ever happened before in the U.S.,’’ then the events truly echo those of December 1941. Now, the U.S. itself is highly subject to having indications analysis practiced against it. The historical experience of the U.S. in interpreting indications of conflict, as they are brought to light in this work, can help to make us more aware of the messages we may be conveying to potential adversaries in the international environment, and therefore preserve an element of surprise for ourselves. The 21st century brings a different world in many respects, but the principles of strategic warning analysis remain the same.
- Sales Rank: #512687 in Books
- Published on: 2016-01-18
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 10.00" h x .43" w x 7.00" l, .74 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 188 pages
About the Author
Jan Goldman is Professor of Intelligence and National Security Studies at Tiffin University. He has been an analyst and educator in the intelligence and academic communities for over 30 years. He is the founding editor of a series of textbooks for the intelligence profession, Security Professionals Intelligence Education Series SPIES (Rowman and Littlefield Publishers), and an academic journal focusing on ethics and intelligence. His most recent publications include War on Terror Encyclopedia: From the Rise of Al Qaeda to 9/11 and Beyond, and The Central Intelligence Agency: An Encyclopedia of Covert Operations, Intelligence Gathering, and Spies. He received his doctorate from George Washington University.
Most helpful customer reviews
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Anticipating
By Solael
This is one of the required reading materials in my Intelligence Collections course at the American Military University. Though this is only the first week of class (8.6.13), we had to read the first 5 chapters (it is a Master's program). From the first 5 chapters, I can state that it is a wonderful and insightful read for those who 'just want to know' or those entering into the Intelligence Community.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Amazing historical assessment that is critically applicable today
By Joel Tapp
Regardless of how long you've been an intelligence professional, or if you're not part of the intelligence community at all, this book is a great reference to warning strategies and challenges. It was hard to keep reminding myself how old the original text was because of the pertinence of the topics and issues that Ms. Grabo brought up and explained. Excellent source!
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Four Stars
By Dr. JNE
GOOD RESOURCE BOOK.
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